Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
